New CNN polling Wednesday showed Vice President Kamala Harris is struggling to win over non-college-educated White men in six battleground states, which one analyst said could spell “trouble.”
“Harris has the advantage in Michigan and Wisconsin, Trump has the advantage in Arizona, and then there‘s the proof of just how close the race is 60-plus days out,” CNN host Kate Bolduan said. “They’re essentially tied in the key battlegrounds, Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania.”
Digging into the numbers, CNN political director David Chalian discussed what the polls indicate along the lines of race and education.
“If you look at the White voters without college degrees, this is a Trump base constituency, obviously. You see his huge numbers with this group, you see that this is a trouble sign for Harris,” Chalian said. “She also in places like Georgia is not doing well with White college-educated voters. She probably wants to make up some ground with White college-educated voters across these battlegrounds as well.”
By contrast, the CNN political director also noted how Black voters overwhelmingly support Harris.
“Well, if you take a look here among Black voters where we over-sampled, you know, and able to look at the Black voting population in three of the states, Michigan, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, take a look here. Eighty-six percent of Black voters in Michigan are with Harris, 11% with Trump,” Chalian said. “Eighty-five percent in Georgia, 84% of Black voters support with Pennsylvania.
“I just want to note that in Pennsylvania, in 2020, Joe Biden, according to exit polls, his number among Black voters was 92%, so there‘s still room here for Harris to grow and consolidate the Black vote, which is going to be necessary if she is going to win in places like Georgia and Pennsylvania, which are clearly in play here and toss-up races.”
Chalian also commented on the stark gender gap in polls.
“Among female likely voters in these states, you see, this is a 17-percentage point lead and Wisconsin among female voters for Harris, a 16% percentage point lead in Michigan, you see it gets more narrowed down here in Arizona,” he said.
But the “flip side,” Chalian said, is with male voters who support Trump.
“You‘ve seen Donald Trump‘s advantage, very significant with male voters. Eighteen points in Nevada, 15-point advantage in Pennsylvania,” he said. “That‘s the gap when we talk about the gender gap. Harris’ advantage with women in addition to Trump‘s advantage with men and who wins that battle, who extends that advantage, could have a lot to say in these battleground states.”
“An important gut check for both campaigns and on multiple levels in multiple states is what’s coming out here,” the news host concluded.
