The Athletic’s NFL QB stock report, Week 1: It’s Patrick Mahomes, then everyone else

Quarterbacks have never been more valuable in the NFL, and that’s now true on multiple fronts.

Not only do teams need a great one to contend for a Super Bowl, but they also need to be great at asset management to maintain roster integrity around these exploding contracts. Nineteen quarterbacks are earning at least $30 million annually — just six years after Matt Ryan became the first $30 million QB — including eight who have already topped the $50 million barrier.

The salary cap dynamics have changed because of the league’s rising revenue, largely due to new media deals and partnerships with sports betting sites, so there’s more money to go around. And because of that, if teams have even a decent quarterback, they’re more willing than ever to meet market value to keep them.

As such, the QB spotlight has never been brighter, so we’re instituting a new weekly feature this season. We will publish “The Athletic QB stock report” every Tuesday morning, starting with a power ranking of the 32 starters and highlighting four-to-six noteworthy players or trends during each story.

We’ll keep tabs on whose stock is changing most dramatically, the QBs under the most pressure, who has the most interesting upcoming matchups and an assortment of other categories that feel pertinent on any given week.

So with that, welcome to our stock report for Week 1! It’s our preseason look at where things stand and a nice way to set expectations before anyone hits the field. It’ll also be a great way to measure the most prominent risers and fallers between now and the end of the season.

We look forward to bringing this to you each week.

The Mahomes spotlight

Now a three-time Super Bowl champion and two-time NFL MVP, Mahomes has cemented himself as the new standard in the post-Tom Brady era.

Surely, it’s been obvious for a while Mahomes is the best in the league, but he marched the Kansas City Chiefs to another Lombardi Trophy last season while wading through as much chaos on the field as they’ve ever endured. For so long throughout the regular season, the skill players were inconsistent at best and mistake-prone in clutch moments, but Mahomes almost always found a way to rally in crucial situations, especially during the playoffs.

Later this week, our annual league survey of executives and coaches will reveal Mahomes to be the runaway MVP prediction. While the outcome wasn’t a surprise, the landslide in the balloting surely made a statement. The league has learned to never write off Mahomes.

The gap between Mahomes and the rest of the field is as wide as ever.

Breakthrough candidates

Who can be this year’s Stroud?

Tagovailoa has had the numbers but needs to make more plays off schedule and in clutch moments against quality opponents to charge up the board. Lawrence undeniably has top-10 potential if he can be more consistent and get the Jacksonville Jaguars back into the playoffs. Hurts will return to the MVP conversation if new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and co. figure it out in Philly.

The most attention, however, might be in the NFC North with Love and Williams. Love was absolutely dynamite for much of the Green Bay Packers’ final 12 games, including the playoffs, and he turned those two months into a four-year, $220 million contract. If that was merely a launch point, Love will easily finish the season ranked inside the top 10.

Williams has the talent to get there, but let’s not pretend there’s a Stroud-like performance taking place every season. Williams is working with one of the best casts of skill players in the league, so he’s set up for immediate success if the offensive line pulls its weight. Chicago Bears fans should be ecstatic over the direction of the franchise.

Richardson, Daniels, Levis and Young are dark-horse candidates to make a big jump. It’s also possible Watson is way too low on this list, and he could fly into the top half if the Cleveland Browns pick up where they left off in 2023.

Keep an eye on Murray, too. Now healthy and with Marvin Harrison Jr. in the lineup, Murray could do some impressive things with highly respected OC Drew Petzing. The Arizona Cardinals are a team on the rise. Just how high they climb may depend on Murray.

Injury questions

There are a handful of quarterbacks at varying points of their careers who need better injury luck in 2024.

Burrow’s ceiling has only been limited by injury, but there have been plenty. A devastating knee injury prematurely ended his rookie season in 2020, and he went down early again in 2023 due to a torn wrist ligament, not to mention the calf strain that wiped out most of his summer. He played through other noteworthy ailments in 2021 and 2022. Burrow has the potential to trim the gap with Mahomes down the line, but it’ll never happen if he can’t stack healthy seasons together.

Herbert, of course, has all the physical tools, but he’s been compiling injuries, as well. He missed most of training camp with a plantar fascia injury and has dealt with finger injuries and fractured rib cartilage in recent seasons. There’s optimism his new head coach Jim Harbaugh can elevate Herbert’s game, but the QB has had a tough time shaking those nagging injuries.

Lawrence caught the injury bug last season, dealing with several ailments that eventually caught up as he missed the first game of his career. Was it a one-off season, or will this become a trend?

Rodgers and Cousins are each coming off a torn Achilles, and their new(ish) employers continue to hope their respective arrivals can reverse the fates of their franchises. Rodgers lasted four snaps last season with the New York Jets, while Cousins landed a four-year, $180 million contract to help coach Raheem Morris enter a new era with the Atlanta Falcons.

Watson hasn’t recaptured his production from Houston, whether it was due to his extended layoff because of his suspension or the injuries that followed suit. He’s been cleared for takeoff with the Browns, but the organization is still keeping tabs on his strength after dealing with a displaced fracture in his right shoulder.

Richardson showed electric potential in parts of four games as a rookie, but he also went down during each start, including a concussion and the season-ending right shoulder sprain. Richardson may have the widest gap between his ceiling and floor as any starter in the league. We’ll find out this year if he’s injury-prone or if his injuries were just wretched luck that’ll be forgotten upon his rise to stardom.

There’s a saying in the NFL that “hurt guys stay hurt,” but there are exceptions. Jackson overcame back-to-back injury-shortened seasons to win his second MVP. Purdy and Tagovailoa were in the MVP conversation last season after overcoming their own injury woes in 2022. Murray looked the part down the stretch after his ACL recovery.

As always, injuries will play a significant role in the story of the season.

Rookie spotlight

Williams, Daniels and Nix have already been named the starters. Drake Maye will open the season on the New England Patriots’ bench, but it’s only a matter of time before he takes over for Brissett. Michael Penix Jr. is on the Love plan firmly behind Cousins for the foreseeable future. J.J. McCarthy is out for the year with a torn meniscus.

Justifiably, Williams carries the highest expectations as the No. 1 pick and in the best situation. Daniels will likely make a play every week that goes viral, but the Washington Commanders are probably going to be inconsistent. Before the draft, Nix was viewed as a point guard who could become a solid starter in the right situation, and coach Sean Payton’s peers around the league believe Nix has just that. Maye looked like the better quarterback at the end of camp but should benefit from the early respite while the Patriots try to work through concerns on the offensive line.

It’s an exciting rookie class, but they need the time and resources to develop. More often than not, the heralded 2021 QB class wasn’t afforded those luxuries, and four of the five first-rounders are already on different teams as a result.

Here’s to changing the narrative with the 2024 class.

(Photo illustration: Daniel Goldfarb / The Athletic; photo: Ryan Kang / Getty Images)