The 50 NFL coaches and executives who participated in the 2024 Quarterback Tiers ranking did not mistake Miami Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa or Jacksonville Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence for elite QBs. Tagovailoa was ranked 15th and Lawrence 16th among 30 veterans, placing them in Tier 3 as “win-with” not “win-because-of” quarterbacks—talented, but unproven as game-changers.
Despite their mid-tier ranking, both quarterbacks secured lucrative contract extensions. Lawrence’s $55 million-a-year deal made him the highest-paid in the league momentarily, while Tagovailoa’s $53.1 million-a-year extension placed him among the top five.
This trend of awarding top-tier contracts to mid-tier quarterbacks is a recent phenomenon. Previously, only Kirk Cousins, from 2014 to 2022, commanded such high-value contracts among Tier 3 quarterbacks, thanks to free agency leverage. But in recent years, teams are locking in similar lucrative deals with mid-tier quarterbacks, including the New York Giants with Daniel Jones and the New Orleans Saints with Derek Carr.
One NFL team contract negotiator noted the growing trend of teams avoiding the risk of making QBs, like Jones, “play it out.” This reflects a shift in the market where mid-tier quarterbacks are being paid as top-tier, despite not having proven themselves as elite.
Cousins was an outlier, but now teams are more willing to pay significant sums to secure quarterbacks early, even those in Tier 3. Historically, Tier 1 and 2 quarterbacks—regarded as more likely to lead teams to Super Bowls without an all-time great defense—received the highest value contracts. However, the trend is shifting, with Tier 3 quarterbacks now receiving top-market extensions.
For instance, the 49ers’ Brock Purdy, still on a rookie contract, offers the greatest surplus value, ranking No. 12 in 2024 QB Tiers while being paid less than $1 million annually. Despite his success, there is doubt if Purdy could perform as well without the 49ers’ star-studded lineup and coach Kyle Shanahan’s designs.
As the NFL becomes more inclined to pay quarterbacks based on current market trends rather than solely on elite performance, the lines between tiers blur. Teams might favor securing peace and short-term gains over longer evaluations, risking large investments in mid-tier quarterbacks. This approach reflects the broader pressures in the NFL, where decision-makers often prioritize job security and immediate results over potentially more prudent financial strategies.
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