NFL Projection Model, AFC win totals: Can anyone dethrone the Chiefs?

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Does anyone in the AFC West have a chance of dethroning Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs? Are the Buffalo Bills still the kings of the AFC East? In less than three weeks, we’ll start to get our answers.

But in the meantime, with rosters close to finalized, it’s time for us to fire up my NFL Projection Model to get the lay of the land for the upcoming NFL season. Today, we’ll look at the projected win totals for every team in the AFC to see what we can expect from this conference during the 2024 season. We’ll examine the NFC on Tuesday.

As a quick reminder, my NFL Projection model takes play-by-play data and creates an offensive and defensive projection for each team. From there, I simulate every game this season — and repeat this process 100,000 times — to see how many games a team is likely to win, how often they make the playoffs or win their division and even win the Super Bowl. But today, we’re just focused on win totals.

NFL Projection Model: AFC

AFC East

The Bills have won four consecutive AFC East titles, but after an offseason of roster turnover, highlighted by trading wide receiver Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans, there has been some doubt about Buffalo’s chances to make it a five-peat.

Well, not according to my model.

Sure, it’s closer than in years past, but the Bills are still the team to beat in the East. Josh Allen is the best non-Mahomes quarterback in the NFL, and the other two division contenders still have questions.

Miami just signed Tua Tagovailoa to a mega-extension, but the Dolphins offense hasn’t been able to get it done against quality competition. The New York Jets are looking to get a full season out of a healthy Aaron Rodgers, but he’s on the wrong side of 40 and coming off an Achilles tear, so what’s a realistic expectation? Yes, the defense should be elite, but I still have concerns about the offense. And for what it’s worth, the Indianapolis Colts have won as many AFC East titles as the Jets since 1999 despite playing in the AFC South since 2002. The analysis of this division simply comes down to whether you believe the Jets can squeeze more out of Rodgers or if the Dolphins can get more out of Tagovailoa to knock off the Bills. My model would rather bet on Allen elevating the Buffalo offense as they defend the throne.

AFC North

You won’t find a division race closer at the top than the AFC North. My model has the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals separated by just 0.03 wins, favoring the Bengals.

While the model acknowledges Baltimore has the better roster, the Ravens have to play a first-place schedule while the Bengals benefit from a fourth-place slate.

The Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers round out the bottom of the division, as my model expects both teams to regress from last year’s success. Both still have questions at quarterback and rely on great defenses. That’s not a sound strategy year to year. Eventually, an offense needs to show up for you to consistently make the playoffs and find postseason success. One step further, the Browns went 6-2 in one-score games last year, while the Steelers went 9-2. Safe to say Steelers coach Mike Tomlin’s 17-year streak of .500-or-better records is in jeopardy.

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AFC South

This might be the most fun division in the AFC this season. Young, exciting quarterbacks with upside lead each team.

C.J. Stroud led the Houston Texans to the division crown last year. While he delivered a historic rookie season, it’s hard to know whether there will be a second-year jump because of how good he was last year. Bear in mind, the Texans are going from playing a fourth-place schedule to a first-place schedule. That’s going to make life more difficult.

The Jacksonville Jaguars know they have something special in Trevor Lawrence, but they haven’t been able to put it all together. Still, I think they’re firmly the second-best team in the division but with a large range of outcomes.

Next, there’s the Indianapolis Colts with Anthony Richardson and the Tennessee Titans with Will Levis. We didn’t get a huge sample size from either during their rookie seasons, but they did enough to inspire hope. This is the one AFC division in which I can envision each team coming out on top. However, until another quarterback steps up to Stroud’s level, the Texans deserve the early nod as the favorite.

AFC West

The AFC West — and well, the AFC — goes through Kansas City. The Chiefs showed last year they don’t even need home-field advantage to win the AFC, and that’s a scary thought for the rest of the conference.

MAHOMES BEHIND THE BACK

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— NFL (@NFL) August 17, 2024

It’s an easy game when you have the league’s best quarterback in Mahomes, while two teams in the division (Las Vegas Raiders and Denver Broncos) aren’t expected to be playoff contenders. That’s an easy road to at least one home playoff game for the Chiefs.

The team I haven’t mentioned so far is the Los Angeles Chargers, who made the splash of the offseason by hiring Jim Harbaugh away from Michigan. Look, Harbaugh has won everywhere he’s gone, and I expect more of the same since he will have Justin Herbert conducting his physical offensive attack. But a plantar fascia injury to Herbert early in training camp limits what their ceiling might be. They’re in the middle of a roster turnover transition period — Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler left in the offseason — but a healthy Herbert with Harbaugh on the sidelines should give them at least a shot at knocking the Chiefs off the top spot.